Refugee costs: the EU member states will have to take their chances

EU_FlagNov 10th – Ecofin discussed how to manage refugee costs again today.  Minsters heard from the European Commission, which was asked to look into the matter in early Sept. There seems to be some kind of general agreement (http://bit.ly/1SfMRw4) that budget flexibility within the stability pact framework is possible as it is acknowledged the circumstances are exceptional. But, the actual finacial impact of the refugee costs will assessed on ad-hoc basis, by means of ex post analysis and on a 2014 base line; such decisions apply for 2015/2016. This approach may implications for those country that were already planning on fiscal expansion for next year: a more conservative attitudinal would be advisable lest they would face the risk of more of deficit procedures due to costs the Commission is not recognising eligible in an ex post assessment. ldf